If the United States fails to break Iran and Tehran comes out standing, Jolani’s Syria becomes a fragile project overnight, because this “new Syria” survives on American cover, Turkish leverage, and Gulf money, and all three will recalibrate the moment the U.S. is forced to accept it can’t dictate terms to Iran.
Alastair Crooke argues that an Iranian survival — let alone an Iranian victory — would trigger a wider regional rebalancing, especially in the Gulf, because the energy and trade lifelines can’t be secured without eventually dealing with Iran. And when the Gulf recalculates, Syria recalculates.
He also warns against the kind of “wild thinking” you hear in American circles that Hezbollah can be “managed” by pushing Jolani to the battlefield in the Bekaa. Crooke’s says that kind of escalation fantasy is exactly how empires get trapped in unwinnable wars.
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