Netanyahu’s Visit to Israeli-Occupied Syrian Territory & the Collapse of Syrian Sovereignty

Syria today is ruled by a leadership that cannot protect the sovereignty of the country. And all the rhetorical condemnation in the world will not change that reality.

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Let me start this article by putting Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the newly occupied Syrian territories into context.

Netanyahu, accompanied by senior Israeli commanders, walked straight into Syrian territory — not the Golan Heights this time, which Israel formally annexed decades ago — but newly occupied zones inside Syria’s south, areas that Israel has quietly taken control of during the chaos of the Syrian collapse. Netanyahu tells the troops that Israel’s presence in Syria is of “immense importance” and will not be rolled back. This is not an accidental phrase. This is policy.

France24 frames it in diplomatic language: “tensions rise,” “buffer zone,” “security interests.” But if you strip away the euphemisms, what happened is this:
The Israeli prime minister paid a high-profile visit to a piece of Syrian land and told the world: ‘We’re not leaving.’

Syria — meaning the new Damascus regime under Julani — “condemned” the visit. Condemned. That’s it. No military pushback. No mobilization. No deterrence. Just a press release.

And why is that so important? Because this same leadership, this same regime, spent more than a decade projecting itself as the fiercest anti-Assad force, the bravest fighters, the lionhearted defenders of Syrian dignity. For years, they told Syrians — and the world — that once they reached Damascus, once they took power, the “real sovereignty” of Syria would finally be restored from the “tyrant.”

Well, they reached Damascus. Assad fell. They now sit in the presidential palace. And what happens the moment Israel expands further into Syrian territory? They turn into a whisper. Into a spectator. Into a fragile authority incapable of responding.

Let’s be honest about this. The regime ruling Damascus today was never built to defend Syria against a foreign state. They were built, armed, funded, and politically shaped to fight a specific enemy: the previous Syrian state and its institutions, and by extension the Syrian people who supported it. That was the battlefield they trained for. That was the power structure they grew in. They fought other Syrians with ferocity. But when it comes to confronting Israel, the fire disappears.

Israel knows this. Tel Aviv has always been exceptional at reading regional vulnerabilities. And when Netanyahu stands on Syrian soil and tells his soldiers that Israel’s presence there is essential and permanent, he is sending a message not only to Syrians but to the entire region: “This land is ours now. And nobody is going to challenge us.”

The so-called “rules-based order” makes this possible. Because the rules only apply when they serve the strategic interests of the United States and its allies. Ukraine’s borders? Sacred. Immediate outrage. Sanctions. Resolutions. Weapon transfers. But Syria’s borders? Disposable. Negotiable. Useful.

And if the opponent of Israeli expansion is a fragmented, internally divided, internationally dependent structure like the Julani regime, then the rules are even more flexible. Israel understands perfectly well that this regime has neither the political legitimacy nor the military capability to resist. And beyond that — and here is the important part — the new Syrian regime is now deeply intertwined with Turkey and the United States, two actors that have zero interest in provoking a confrontation with Israel.

Let me be very clear. Israel will not withdraw from these territories — not next month, not next year, not under the current geopolitical system. Why would they? What incentive is there? They know Damascus cannot respond. They know Washington will shield them. They know the Arab regimes are seeking normalization with Israel. And they know that the “international community,” which spent years screaming about “violations of sovereignty,” will look away when the violator is Israel.

This is why Netanyahu made this visit now. It is a victory tour. It is a humiliation ritual. It is Netanyahu saying to the new Syrian regime, “You may control Damascus, but we control your southern border. And there is nothing you can do about it.”

And the saddest part is that he’s right.

The same armed factions that once filmed themselves charging into battle, shouting about liberation and dignity, now cannot even issue a credible threat, let alone a military response, to a foreign leader walking across their land. For 14 years, they fought like lions but only against their own state, their own army, their own civilians from rival communities. When the real test appeared, when a genuine foreign occupation expanded, they froze.

In international relations, words matter less than capabilities. And capabilities matter less than alliances. Julani’s regime is wholly dependent on Turkey for security and the United States for political cover. Both Ankara and Washington have long, complicated, deeply intertwined strategic relationships with Israel. They will not allow the new Syrian regime to challenge Israeli actions. And Julani knows that without these two pillars, his entire government collapses overnight.

So what does that mean for Syria? It means the country is entering a new phase of fragmentation, not the chaotic fragmentation of the war, but a geopolitical fragmentation where different foreign powers carve out zones of influence. Iran is sidelined. Russia is cautious. Turkey holds the north. The United States holds the northeast. And Israel now expands its footprint in the south with full confidence.

What happened this week was not an isolated event. It was a preview. A rehearsal. A demonstration of the new Middle East order, where Israeli military presence inside Syria becomes normalized, uncontested, and eventually permanent.

And perhaps the most tragic irony of all is that the strongest deterrence against Israeli occupation in Syrian modern history came from the very government that these same factions overthrew.

You don’t have to like that fact. But it’s a fact nonetheless.

Syria today is ruled by a leadership that cannot protect the sovereignty of the country. And all the rhetorical condemnation in the world will not change that reality.

Israel knows it. The United States knows it. Turkey knows it.
And sadly, the Syrian people know it too.

—Kevork Almassian is a Syrian geopolitical analyst and the founder of Syriana Analysis.