The Geopolitical Engine Behind Israel’s Strikes on Syria

The goal is to extend Israeli geopolitical reach deep into the heart of Syria and, eventually, into Iraq.

Once again, Israel has struck inside Syria. And once again, the justification is cloaked in the language of humanitarian concern. This time, a supposed response to the oppression of the Druze community. But those of us who follow the shifting tectonics of West Asian geopolitics know better. What’s happening in Syria is not about protecting minorities. It’s about fragmenting a nation for strategic gain. And Israel is neither alone nor shy in orchestrating this dismemberment.

To understand this latest escalation, we must zoom out and look through the lens of history. Over a century ago, the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement sliced up the Levant into artificial borders. The goal was then straightforward: divide and conquer. That strategy never disappeared—it evolved. Today, the tools are not colonial mandates but proxies, sectarian militias, think tanks, and intelligence-backed political figures like Julani.

The expiration date of the original colonial map has long passed, and with it comes a renewed push to Balkanize the region anew. The attacks on the Druze are just one part of that broader scheme. This plan, which has taken root in Israeli and Western strategic circles, envisions Syria not as one nation but as a patchwork of ethnic and sectarian enclaves—an archipelago of vulnerability.

Who benefits from this? Certainly not the Syrian people, who have already endured over a decade of war and dislocation. The real beneficiaries are those who seek to redraw the map to their advantage, chief among them, Israel.

Let us be clear: Joulani’s brutal campaign in Sweida and elsewhere isn’t about security or reform. It’s about killing Syria’s social fabric. He returned from Baku, Azerbaijan—a known playground for Israeli intelligence—only to unleash al-Qaeda factions against the Druze a day later. Coincidence? Hardly. This is a methodical campaign to drive a wedge between Syria’s communities and eliminate the possibility of national unity.

Divide the country vertically, force every group to retreat into its own canton, and you destroy the Syrian state without firing a single missile. This is textbook hybrid warfare. And once these mini-states are in place, guess who swoops in as the “protector” of minorities? That’s right, Israel. Not out of altruism, but because it creates the pretext for territorial expansion and control.

The so-called “David Corridor” is one such project: a land bridge stretching from the occupied Golan Heights through Sweida to the eastern banks of the Euphrates. This isn’t a conspiracy theory; it’s an openly discussed plan within Israeli think tanks. The goal is to extend Israeli geopolitical reach deep into the heart of Syria and, eventually, into Iraq. This corridor would not only solidify Israeli dominance over the Levant but also serve as a launchpad for undermining Iraq and Iran.

In Iraq, this manifests through attempts to exert influence in key Shia regions like Najaf and Karbala. The Israeli goal is permanent strategic superiority.

What’s worse is the international stamp of approval Julani has been given. He’s on a PR tour, shaking hands with Western leaders—from Trump to British and French officials—while his forces commit massacres in the heart of Syria. The West claims it is backing reform, but what we’re seeing is the empowerment of radical Takfiri forces that have no place in Syria’s traditionally moderate religious landscape.

Some say it was a mistake to back a “reformed terrorist” like Julani. I argue it was intentional. The goal was never to stabilize Syria—it was to fracture it. They could have installed figures like Manaf Tlass, a former general with broader appeal, but they didn’t. Why? Because he might have preserved the country’s unity. Instead, they picked someone who would inflame sectarian tensions and justify continued foreign intervention.

Let’s not forget Turkey’s role in this duplicity. Ankara publicly criticizes Israeli actions, yet continues to supply fuel—sourced from Azerbaijan—that ends up in Israeli hands. Roughly 40% of Israel’s energy comes through this corridor. So while they posture as defenders of Palestine and Syria, they’re lubricating the very machine that grinds both into dust.

The people of Syria—whether Druze, Christian, Alawite, Sunni, or Kurdish—are caught in this web of international deceit. As a Syrian Christian, I can attest to the coexistence that once defined our country. I never felt marginalized among my Muslim compatriots. But that harmony was protected by a centralized, secular state. Remove that structure, and what fills the vacuum is radicalism, fragmentation, and foreign hegemony.

Joulani’s reign may extend for now across Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, and Damascus, but the writing is on the wall. The Kurdish northeast is slipping from his grasp. The Druze in Sweida will never forgive or forget. Even the Alawite heartland is beginning to stir. Without regional or international protection, these communities may fracture—or they may federate into self-administered zones. Either way, the Syrian state as we knew it risks dissolving.

This is the real objective: not regime change, but state collapse. And those orchestrating it don’t want democracy. They want dominion.

—Kevork Almassian is a Syrian journalist, geopolitical analyst, and the founder of Syriana Analysis.