A well-argued essay. I will add that the “4D chess” theory gives Washington too much credit, but dismissing US leverage entirely would also be a mistake. The more accurate picture seems to be that America still has powerful tools, but far less control over the consequences of using them. Hormuz, energy flows and supply chains may not be moving according to a hidden master plan, yet they remain instruments of pressure. China’s reaction is therefore cautious for a reason: energy flows are the backbone of its industrial power. Even if Beijing has reserves, alternative suppliers and greater resilience than many assume, the United States still retains the ability to create hiccups, raise costs, disrupt flows intermittently and force China to plan around uncertainty. That is leverage, even if it is not mastery. The real story is not that Washington is playing flawless chess. It is that a declining empire can still shake the board.
Great article which shows how even capable and intelligent commentators like Yanis Varifakous misjudge Trump and his regime, and give Trump way too much credit in terms of strategic abilities. I don’t think Trump’s economic policies reflect a grand plan to deliberately de-value the Dollar and make US exports more competitive and ultimately bring back manufacturing to the US. Rather these reflect attitudes of supremacy, grievance and entitlement. Facts are Trump is dumber than a sack of hammers, extremely ignorant with seemingly little curiosity regarding the rest of the world. Also it was not only Trump which misjudged the ability of Iran to fight back, but many of the people he listens to, all who don’t realize that Iran is not Lebanon, Syria or Iraq, states which were easily broken apart by exploiting ethnic and sectarian cleavages. In policy studies there’s a concept of perverse effects which refers to the effects of a course of action end up being the exact opposite of what was intended. The US, Israel and the Gulf states thought they could fatally weaken Iran with a ‘shock and awe’ attack and ensure US hegemony over West Asia, instead the results are that Iran is now a global power, it is the Gulf states which have been fatally weakened, Israel has not gained any advantage and the US is in danger of being driven out of the region.
Constant endless catastrophism, or speculation and rabble rouse. Worse propaganda at war with counter-propaganda, both sides devoted to the same media techniques. Thousands if not millions of worthless experts, all overdosing on one viscous white-trash clown!
I appreciate this contribution to the bigger conversation, and I can see why you are attracted to this view of things. I will agree that you have a lot of takes on the different aspects that are shifting constantly being shifted and shaped by the moves” the chessboard“. What I’m offering is a slight shift in the perception of who the players are on the different “sides“ in this “war“, and that perhaps there are in fact, bigger forces behind the ones they put on the stage, and that the deception actually lies in a centuries old story. They had us all believing as far back as when our great grandparents were children, and likely are beyond that. I, and many, believe it Iran is and always has been a proxy state. But I think the difference between the way you look at it and the way I have come to see it is simply a question of on whose behalf it is acting. I believe many see it as a sovereign nation, and I get why it may look that way to some. But look behind a couple of different layers of curtains and we always find the ones who control the money.
My primary suggestion to you is that “a player” you didn’t mention until well past the middle of your story IS the ACTUAL “other side“, that they are checkmated, mostly already gone, and what we are actually witnessing is a gradual revealing of self-destruction that they brought upon themselves.
Perhaps give a read to another that I follow who has a more in-depth breakdown of what I just outlined 👇🏼
Your perspective is valued here. Here's our unsolicited long term view. China, Russia, US, in a global Tri-World Order Alliance, EU is Isolated. Trump is not the chess player. More like he, and the US, is being played. DJT is such a focal point that fans & foes alike zero in on him. He's "a" factor, but that "thee" factor. Squeaky wheel gets the grease. Almost no one, in English, is reporting from a Chinese perspective. (Noted: Your point about China, just after writing the previous line.) Perhaps the game is not chess at all, 4D or otherwise. Maybe the game is Go, and Trump has taken his chess pieces to the wrong game. If the US isn't in control then we must ask, who is? Who is the kung-fu master and who is the cowboy? Who's sweating and who's chillin'.
The Rothschilds have been doing this for centuries.
You act like there is still a United States but the country was couped successfully many years ago.
This plan to start famine in America would be their assurance of Agenda 2030 being complete in four years, built on the ruins of a completely collapsed country.
Their puppets may be idiotic but the real rulers may have planned this for a long time.
P.S. As for Trump, he's a four-time draft dodger with no military experience who started a war without Congressional approval unprovoked against a sovereign nation. This might be part of the plan, to turn everyone against America before they destroy it.
A well-argued essay. I will add that the “4D chess” theory gives Washington too much credit, but dismissing US leverage entirely would also be a mistake. The more accurate picture seems to be that America still has powerful tools, but far less control over the consequences of using them. Hormuz, energy flows and supply chains may not be moving according to a hidden master plan, yet they remain instruments of pressure. China’s reaction is therefore cautious for a reason: energy flows are the backbone of its industrial power. Even if Beijing has reserves, alternative suppliers and greater resilience than many assume, the United States still retains the ability to create hiccups, raise costs, disrupt flows intermittently and force China to plan around uncertainty. That is leverage, even if it is not mastery. The real story is not that Washington is playing flawless chess. It is that a declining empire can still shake the board.
AGREED!
Great article which shows how even capable and intelligent commentators like Yanis Varifakous misjudge Trump and his regime, and give Trump way too much credit in terms of strategic abilities. I don’t think Trump’s economic policies reflect a grand plan to deliberately de-value the Dollar and make US exports more competitive and ultimately bring back manufacturing to the US. Rather these reflect attitudes of supremacy, grievance and entitlement. Facts are Trump is dumber than a sack of hammers, extremely ignorant with seemingly little curiosity regarding the rest of the world. Also it was not only Trump which misjudged the ability of Iran to fight back, but many of the people he listens to, all who don’t realize that Iran is not Lebanon, Syria or Iraq, states which were easily broken apart by exploiting ethnic and sectarian cleavages. In policy studies there’s a concept of perverse effects which refers to the effects of a course of action end up being the exact opposite of what was intended. The US, Israel and the Gulf states thought they could fatally weaken Iran with a ‘shock and awe’ attack and ensure US hegemony over West Asia, instead the results are that Iran is now a global power, it is the Gulf states which have been fatally weakened, Israel has not gained any advantage and the US is in danger of being driven out of the region.
Well pointed out the nature of this mental disorder.
How can the irrational make a strategy which is beneficial ?
Is geopolitics of any real worth?
Constant endless catastrophism, or speculation and rabble rouse. Worse propaganda at war with counter-propaganda, both sides devoted to the same media techniques. Thousands if not millions of worthless experts, all overdosing on one viscous white-trash clown!
I appreciate this contribution to the bigger conversation, and I can see why you are attracted to this view of things. I will agree that you have a lot of takes on the different aspects that are shifting constantly being shifted and shaped by the moves” the chessboard“. What I’m offering is a slight shift in the perception of who the players are on the different “sides“ in this “war“, and that perhaps there are in fact, bigger forces behind the ones they put on the stage, and that the deception actually lies in a centuries old story. They had us all believing as far back as when our great grandparents were children, and likely are beyond that. I, and many, believe it Iran is and always has been a proxy state. But I think the difference between the way you look at it and the way I have come to see it is simply a question of on whose behalf it is acting. I believe many see it as a sovereign nation, and I get why it may look that way to some. But look behind a couple of different layers of curtains and we always find the ones who control the money.
My primary suggestion to you is that “a player” you didn’t mention until well past the middle of your story IS the ACTUAL “other side“, that they are checkmated, mostly already gone, and what we are actually witnessing is a gradual revealing of self-destruction that they brought upon themselves.
Perhaps give a read to another that I follow who has a more in-depth breakdown of what I just outlined 👇🏼
https://substack.com/@burningbright/note/c-254227848?r=25fllf&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Well done, Kevork - this is an excellent summary and explication of what these three interviews have taught us.
It's not 4D chess. It's 4-dementia checkers.
A welcome analysis.
Your perspective is valued here. Here's our unsolicited long term view. China, Russia, US, in a global Tri-World Order Alliance, EU is Isolated. Trump is not the chess player. More like he, and the US, is being played. DJT is such a focal point that fans & foes alike zero in on him. He's "a" factor, but that "thee" factor. Squeaky wheel gets the grease. Almost no one, in English, is reporting from a Chinese perspective. (Noted: Your point about China, just after writing the previous line.) Perhaps the game is not chess at all, 4D or otherwise. Maybe the game is Go, and Trump has taken his chess pieces to the wrong game. If the US isn't in control then we must ask, who is? Who is the kung-fu master and who is the cowboy? Who's sweating and who's chillin'.
Thank you for this piece, translated in French here : https://zanzibar.substack.com/p/le-mythe-des-echecs-en-4d-de-trump
The Rothschilds have been doing this for centuries.
You act like there is still a United States but the country was couped successfully many years ago.
This plan to start famine in America would be their assurance of Agenda 2030 being complete in four years, built on the ruins of a completely collapsed country.
Their puppets may be idiotic but the real rulers may have planned this for a long time.
P.S. As for Trump, he's a four-time draft dodger with no military experience who started a war without Congressional approval unprovoked against a sovereign nation. This might be part of the plan, to turn everyone against America before they destroy it.
Pfft..."4D chess"
https://aaronruby.substack.com/p/with-a-slingshot-and-one-rock-the?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=7jhui4